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#ISSS2016 USA [clear filter]
Monday, July 25
 

1:30pm

Systems Thinking and Wildland Fire Management
2724 A changing climate, expanding ex-urban residential development, and increasing pressures on ecosystem services raise global concerns over growing losses associated with wildland fires. New management paradigms acknowledge that fire is inevitable and often uncontrollable, and focus on living with fire rather than attempting to eliminate it from the landscape. A notable example from the U.S. is the National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy, which aims to bring multiple landowners and stakeholders together to achieve three broadly defined goals: resilient landscapes, fire-adapted human communities, and safe and effective response to fire. Implicit in the structure of these three goals is the nexus of three systems: the ecological system, the social system, and the fire management system, respectively. This systems-based structure reflects a perspective that contextualizes fire as a disturbance agent that influences and is in turn influenced by other agents and processes within a broader socio-ecological system. While the need for transformative system change is well-recognized, at least three central challenges remain: (1) the need to accept that how fires are managed is in many instances the limiting factor of system behaviour; (2) the need to improve our understanding of the characteristics and complexities of the fire management system itself; and (3) perhaps most fundamentally, the need to coherently apply systems analysis principles in order to improve system performance. In this presentation I will attempt to bridge these gaps by applying systems thinking to contemporary wildfire management issues in the U.S. One thread of the presentation will focus on synthesizing findings from various lines of fire-related research and identifying how collectively they reflect systemic flaws stemming from feedbacks, delays, bounded rationality, misaligned incentives, and other factors. Particular attention will be devoted to the “fire paradox,” whereby a legacy of fire exclusion in fire-prone forests has led to hazardous accumulations of flammable vegetation such that future fires burn with higher intensity and are more resistant to control; today’s “success” begets tomorrows failure. The second thread will outline a roadmap for redesigning the fire management system so that behaviour better aligns with purpose. This discussion will focus on recommended actions including breaking down institutional silos, investing in pre-fire assessment and planning, improving monitoring and performance evaluation, and adopting core risk management principles. Ideally this line of research will yield insights that can lead to meaningful systemic change and improved fire management outcomes.

Chairs
avatar for Mag. Stefan Blachfellner

Mag. Stefan Blachfellner

SIG Chair: Socio-Ecological Systems and Design, Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science
https://about.me/bstefan

Speakers

Monday July 25, 2016 1:30pm - 2:00pm
ECCR 200
 
Tuesday, July 26
 

10:29am

Plenary IV: Crisis Science; Anticipatory, Real-Time, and Preventive
Description: Adequate resilience and appropriate response (interventions)  to crises and disasters and continuous improvement thereof is a growing global need and a social responsibility in view of the seemingly growing number of disasters endangering a growing number of people and even our civilization. Can we do a better job of anticipating, systemically  understanding and mitigating the   cycles of crisis and recovery   by combining exploratory ‘crisis science’ with long-term ‘sustainability science’? Can we unravel the antithesis of incompatible response systems and find new ways to integrate scientific, technological, cultural,  ethical, political and  economic influences? Preparedness must systemically consider the  often emergent interplay of supporting and obstructing factors.   Actual interventions (responses)  must holistically evaluate the total situation and make decisions, unfortunately to be performed under high uncertainty, extreme  stress and time pressure. Despite the often singularity of disasters we have to identify similarities and powerful abstraction in order to support scientific analysis and improved mitigation. A long range target could be an interdisciplinary ‘Strategic Crisis Science’.

The panel of international experts will discuss these issues from their different backgrounds and national priorities with respect to preparedness and interventions.  We will attempt to esablish common grounds and basic solutions.

Chair: Gerhard Chroust

Speakers
avatar for Rick Dove

Rick Dove

Paradigm Shift International, Inc. and Stevens Institute of Technology
Rick Dove is a leading researcher, practitioner, and educator of fundamental principles for agile enterprise, agile systems, and agile development processes. In 1991 he initiated the global interest in agility as co-PI on the seminal 21st Century Manufacturing Enterprise Strategy... Read More →
avatar for Nancy Maraboy

Nancy Maraboy

President and Founder, Indigenous Education Institute
Nancy C. Maryboy, Ph.D. is the President and Founder of the Indigenous Education Institute, a non profit organization with a mission of preserving, protecting and applying indigenous knowledge. She is also President of Wohali Productions, Inc., consulting in areas of indigenous science... Read More →
avatar for Roberto Poli

Roberto Poli

roberto.poli@unitn.it, University of Trento
Roberto Poli is Associate Professor of Philosophy of Science at the University of Trento (Italy). He graduated in Sociology (B.A., with honors) at the University of Trento (Italy) in 1980 and obtained a Ph.D. in Philosophy at the University of Utrecht (Netherlands) in 2001. Poli... Read More →
avatar for Jai (James) Syvitski

Jai (James) Syvitski

Professor / Director, International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, University of Colorado, INSTAAR
Professor James “Jai” Syvitski received doctorate degrees (Oceanography & Geological Science) from the University of British Columbia in 1978, where he developed a quantitative understanding of particle dynamics across the land-sea boundary. He held a variety of appointments within... Read More →


Tuesday July 26, 2016 10:29am - 10:30am
MATH 100* Math Academic Building, University of Colorado

10:30am

Gerhard Chroust: Expecting the Unexpected, Coping with Crisis
Chairs
avatar for Gerhard Chroust

Gerhard Chroust

Prof. Emeritus, Systems Engineering, Johannes Kepler Univ. Linz
Gerhard Chroust is an Austrian systems scientist, and Professor Emeritus for Systems Engineering and Automationat the Institute of System Sciences at the Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Austria. Chroust is an authority in the fields of formal programming languages and interdisciplinary... Read More →

Sponsors & Partners
avatar for ISSS

ISSS

International Society for the Systems Sciences


Tuesday July 26, 2016 10:30am - 10:40am
MATH 100* Math Academic Building, University of Colorado

10:40am

Roberto Poli: Anticipatory Science – Science before the crisis
Chairs
avatar for Gerhard Chroust

Gerhard Chroust

Prof. Emeritus, Systems Engineering, Johannes Kepler Univ. Linz
Gerhard Chroust is an Austrian systems scientist, and Professor Emeritus for Systems Engineering and Automationat the Institute of System Sciences at the Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Austria. Chroust is an authority in the fields of formal programming languages and interdisciplinary... Read More →

Speakers
avatar for Roberto Poli

Roberto Poli

roberto.poli@unitn.it, University of Trento
Roberto Poli is Associate Professor of Philosophy of Science at the University of Trento (Italy). He graduated in Sociology (B.A., with honors) at the University of Trento (Italy) in 1980 and obtained a Ph.D. in Philosophy at the University of Utrecht (Netherlands) in 2001. Poli... Read More →

Sponsors & Partners
avatar for ISSS

ISSS

International Society for the Systems Sciences


Tuesday July 26, 2016 10:40am - 11:15am
MATH 100* Math Academic Building, University of Colorado

11:15am

Jai (James) Syvitski: From politics to remote sensing: The Indus Flood of 2010 – unfolding of a disaster
The Pakistan flooding, July-November 2010, caused ~2000 fatalities, displaced 20,000,000 inhabitants for weeks to many months, and was 7.5 on a duration-area affected-intensity scale that compares flood magnitudes on a global basis. Exceptional damage was inflicted on crops and cropland and on agriculture support systems such as canals and levees. Total economic impact reached 43 billion USD; 4,500,000 mainly agricultural workers lost their employment for 2010-2011. The catastrophic flood was associated with unusually intense but not unprecedented rainfall in the upland catchment. Most damage was caused by multiple failures of irrigation system levees, and by barrage-related backwater effects that initiated failures and led to avulsions (sudden changes in flow location). The meteorological events did not cause the catastrophe. Instead, the lack of planned accommodation to the river's high sediment load set the stage for super-elevation of the Indus above the surrounding terrain, dangerous levee failures, and channel avulsions. The dynamics of this remarkable event demonstrate that planning for major flow diversions is a necessary component of effective flood control along this and other avulsion-prone rivers. This disaster will serve as an example to discuss the ‘lessons learnt’ for all stakeholders.

Chairs
avatar for Gerhard Chroust

Gerhard Chroust

Prof. Emeritus, Systems Engineering, Johannes Kepler Univ. Linz
Gerhard Chroust is an Austrian systems scientist, and Professor Emeritus for Systems Engineering and Automationat the Institute of System Sciences at the Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Austria. Chroust is an authority in the fields of formal programming languages and interdisciplinary... Read More →

Speakers
avatar for Jai (James) Syvitski

Jai (James) Syvitski

Professor / Director, International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, University of Colorado, INSTAAR
Professor James “Jai” Syvitski received doctorate degrees (Oceanography & Geological Science) from the University of British Columbia in 1978, where he developed a quantitative understanding of particle dynamics across the land-sea boundary. He held a variety of appointments within... Read More →

Sponsors & Partners
avatar for ISSS

ISSS

International Society for the Systems Sciences


Tuesday July 26, 2016 11:15am - 11:50am
MATH 100* Math Academic Building, University of Colorado

11:50am

Plenary IV: Q & A
Chairs
avatar for Gerhard Chroust

Gerhard Chroust

Prof. Emeritus, Systems Engineering, Johannes Kepler Univ. Linz
Gerhard Chroust is an Austrian systems scientist, and Professor Emeritus for Systems Engineering and Automationat the Institute of System Sciences at the Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Austria. Chroust is an authority in the fields of formal programming languages and interdisciplinary... Read More →

Sponsors & Partners
avatar for ISSS

ISSS

International Society for the Systems Sciences


Tuesday July 26, 2016 11:50am - 12:15pm
MATH 100* Math Academic Building, University of Colorado

3:30pm

Comparing the Current ISIS and the (Not Yet) Past Leninist States (USSR and Pre-1979 China)
2791 What our media named as terrorism today are perceived as revolution by some. What we call revolution in mainland China and Russia, are no less violent and cruel than terrorism too. This paper observes and identifies the roots, the triggering historic events, the similarities among the differences, of the two huge phenomena and their two driving ideologies, i.e. the Extreme Islamism and the Bloody Communism, that have deep influence to our time and our daily life. As one of our subject has been just fading away into history (not really) and another is still going on while this paper is being written, we highlight the similarities or even isomorph of these two violent social phenomena, raising a question behind such similarity – what are the driven forces that enable these phenomena to emerge, or, why on this planet a certain number of people are doomed to believe, engage, fight for, and victimized by such pathological ideologies?

Chairs
avatar for Gerhard Chroust

Gerhard Chroust

Prof. Emeritus, Systems Engineering, Johannes Kepler Univ. Linz
Gerhard Chroust is an Austrian systems scientist, and Professor Emeritus for Systems Engineering and Automationat the Institute of System Sciences at the Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Austria. Chroust is an authority in the fields of formal programming languages and interdisciplinary... Read More →

Tuesday July 26, 2016 3:30pm - 4:00pm
ECCR 245